Chase win probability
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%
— Chasing
Defending —
The state of it
Where the cliff is
Win probability at this over and wicket count, across every score the side could be on
What the next over is worth
Tap one to play it out
Cost of a wicket
Over by over
| Over | Need | Left after |
|---|
What total is this heading for?
The first innings has no chase to model, so the question changes: given where a side is now, what do they finish on?
Projected total
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Replay a real match
Every completed chase in the archive, scored ball by ball by the same model. Drag the worm to scrub through it.
Pick a match
Choose any game from the list to see how its win probability moved, delivery by delivery.
How this works, and how well
A win probability is only worth showing if it can be checked. Everything below is measured on matches the model never trained on.